India’s Q2 GDP Data To Be Out On Thursday: What Analysts Expect?

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India’s Q2 FY24 GDP data will be released on November 30.

India’s Q2 FY24 GDP Data: Various estimates peg the Q2 economic growth between 6.5 per cent and 7.1 per cent

India’s Q2 GDP Growth Data: The official gross domestic product (GDP) data for Q2FY24 is scheduled to be released on November 30 by the National Statistical Office (NSO). Though RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has said India’s Q2 GDP numbers will surprise everyone, estimates peg the Q2 economic growth between 6.5 per cent and 7.1 per cent.

Rating agency Icra expects India’s GDP to grow 7 per cent in Q2FY24, State Bank of India (SBI) sees a 6.9-7.1 per cent growth, Barclays India expects the Indian economy to grow 6.8 per cent, and the RBI sees the country’s GDP growth at 6.5 per cent in the July-September 2023 quarter.

Icra in its report said, “High-frequency data suggests that the momentum of construction activity remained healthy in Q2 FY2024, with the sub-par rainfall resulting in relatively lower disruptions in the quarter vis-à-vis what was typically seen in the past. However, with a slowdown in national highway construction, the GVA growth of this sub-sector is likely to have eased to 7.0% in Q2 FY2024 from 7.9% in Q1 FY2024.”

Expecting GDP to growth 6.8% in Q2, analysts at Barclay in a report said underlying growth trends continue to look robust in India, with activity underpinned by domestic consumption, high levels of state-led capex, and strong growth in the utilities sectors.

“Services will continue to be the largest contributor to growth in Q2, despite slower expected growth in the financial services and ‘trade hotels and transport’ categories,” it said.

Acuité Ratings & Research in its report expects Q2 growth at 6.5 per cent. It said there are two important takeaways from our latest macro heat map. One, the economic report card for the first half of the current fiscal has been strong supported by the high investments in public infrastructure, largely steady consumption demand particularly in the services sector and the ramp up in core industrial activity.

“While the current festive season is likely to push up consumption in October-November 2023, there are risks of a weaker rural demand given the projected shortfall in the kharif crop and the continuing impact of El Nino,” it said.

SBI Research forecasts that the quarterly GDP growth for the Q2FY24 should be at 6.9-7.1 per cent, though there could be still a forecasting bias.

“The mean growth rate thus comes at around 7 per cent for Q2FY24. This will firmly push up the FY24 growth rate over RBI projections at 6.5 per cent,” said SBI Research in its Ecowrap note.

It said the domestic economic activity in Q2 has been supported by robust agricultural performance, sustained buoyancy in services, strong capital expenditure by the Centre (49 per cent of budgeted) and states (32 per cent of budgeted) and a robust pick up in consumption expenditure.

In the previous quarter ended June 2023, India’s GDP grew at four-quarter high of 7.8 per cent y-o-y during the April-June 2023 quarter (Q1 FY24) as compared with the 6.1 per cent growth registered in the preceding quarter ended March 2023.

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